Futurum: Predictions as a Market

Will a team win the first game of the season? Will a player score twelve points? People argue about it in chats every day, and the argument stays words. Futurum turns such questions into markets: you pick an outcome and back it, and the price shows how likely the other participants think it is. 🔮

It is a Mini App inside Telegram: it opens from the messenger and needs no separate app install.

What goes on here

Futurum describes itself as a prediction market platform. Participants make predictions on events, and any user, as the project states, can create a market around their own question.

The project's channel shows markets on sports events, such as the result of a season opener or a player's points in a debut. These are among the clearest questions because the result gets checked quickly. ⚽

How a prediction market usually works

Each market has a question with a clear condition and a date by which the result will be known. In a typical market, participants buy and sell shares of the outcomes until then. Check Futurum's exact rules in the app.

• Price as probability. If the "yes" share costs 0.70, the market puts the chance at about seven in ten.
• Settlement. When the event ends the market closes and the correct outcome is paid out.
• Wording. Read the question carefully: "scores in the first game" and "scores in the first period" are different markets.

Your own market in minutes

The most interesting part of an app like this is asking your own question. The bot lets you create markets, and the community decides whether the topic is worth trading.

1. Come up with a question that has a yes or no answer.
2. Set the date by which the result will be known.
3. Describe the source that will confirm the outcome.
4. Publish the market and share it in your chat.

The more specific the question, the fewer arguments at settlement. 🧠

Contests and rewards

The project runs contests with prizes in the TON token, for example a boost contest. Terms and dates are posted in the project's channel and in the app, and they differ from contest to contest.

Treat prizes as a bonus, not as a source of income.

A forecast is not a guarantee

A prediction market is close to betting: you risk money and can lose the whole amount. Even a subject expert is wrong sometimes, and chance plays a big part in sport and politics.

• Stake only what you can lose. Do not borrow and do not use living money.
• Do not chase losses. Trying to win it back usually deepens the loss.
• Check the rules. Find out who decides disputed outcomes and how.
• Mind the law. Some countries restrict such services, and compliance is on you.

If gambling starts to get in the way of your life, take a break and seek help. 🛑