Tonomy: Prediction Market on TON

What is likelier: a price rise, a team victory or a law passing by the end of the month? A prediction market lets you back your opinion with money. The price of an outcome shows how the crowd rates the chances. Tonomy builds such a market on the TON blockchain. 🔮

The profile calls the project the first decentralized prediction market on TON and honestly marks it as under development. News goes out through a separate channel.

How a prediction market works

Each event gets a market with outcomes, for example "yes" and "no". Participants buy shares of outcomes, and a share's price from zero to one reflects the market's view of the probability.

When the event resolves, the correct outcome pays out in full and the wrong ones become worthless. If you bought "yes" at 0.30 and it happened, you receive 1.00. If not, you lose 0.30.

• Price as probability. A share at 0.70 means the market sees roughly a 70 percent chance.
• Resolution. After the outcome, the market closes and pays.
• Liquidity. You can sell a share early only if a buyer exists.

What decentralized means

The rules and settlements are executed by a smart contract on the blockchain, not by a company. Money does not sit in an intermediary's account, and operations can be verified on the network.

Decentralization is not the same as safety, though. A bug in the code can drain participants' funds, and a disputed outcome depends on who confirms it and how.

Status: under development

The profile states plainly that the project is under development. That means features, interface and terms can change, and some functions may be unavailable.

Treat it as an early product. Follow the news in the project's channel and do not deposit money until you understand how the market works today.

Risks without sugarcoating

1. Losing the stake. A wrong forecast zeroes what you put in.
2. Smart contract bugs. An early product is more prone to them.
3. Disputed outcomes. The wording of an event may be read in different ways.
4. Thin liquidity. Exiting a position early can be hard.
5. The law. In some countries betting on event outcomes is treated as gambling and restricted or banned. Check your country's rules.

A sensible approach

• Small amount. Only what you can lose without any effect on your life.
• Clear events. Do not bet on what you do not understand.
• Wallet secret phrase. Type it nowhere and tell nobody.
• Official link. Enter from the bot's profile or the project's channel: lookalike fakes are common.

A prediction market guarantees no profit. It is only a tool, and the probabilities on it are participants' opinions, not facts.